Some bad luck in my previous picks with over 0.5 for the underdog team, but I'm still trying. Maybe not the best conditions here as Aston Villa are fighting with some injuries, but they seem to be slightly improving, even if it will be difficult to get points in this one. Aston Villa should play without role strikers and it's not necessarily a disadvantage, as talented guys like Grealish and El Ghazi can give more unpredictability to their offensive manoeuvre by not giving reference points. On the other side City are still a goal machine but with much less defensive solidity this season. Considering all competitions, they conceded at least a goal in 17 of their last 20 matches. The Villans scored in 9 of their last 10 home matches in the league. It's possible that the hosts are exposed to a loss by large margin, still I expect they to score in any way, as it's not easy for City to have a clean sheet these days.