Well as much as I hate making these picks for favourites at home in NHL, there are few things which make me back this.
First of all, the goalie advantage for Bolts. Yes they start with Vasilevski, which many concider already top-3 goalies in hole league. He has fantastic numbers this season, winning 4 out 5 last starts, and posting great 1.80 goals allowed, and a .936 SV%. He has also been really good this season at home ice. Tampa is rested now and at home, with better overall roster in both ends.
Edmonton played last night agains the Caps, and I must say they are a "one man team". Yes mr. McDavid is running the show in their team, AND other lines expect the 1st line of Edmonton isn't really working. Only line which I saw was good on ice in offense was McDavid's line. They lost that match to Caps, and now have to travel and play b2b. They start with finnish Koskinen, goalie which I know good from past in KHL with SKA, and he was really good there. Still he plays 1st real season for him in NHL, and this is a HUGE test for him against one of the best offenses in hole league. Also Edmonton is allowing over 3 goals avg. per game on road this season.
So better team, home advantage, rest and a better goalie. Have to go with the Bolts here, cause the odds are good enough imo against team that plays b2b game on road!