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bfischer

Total picks (W-D-L):690-97-538 Average stake:3.49
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USA - Guadeloupe   (won)

At kick-off many questions will have been dropped after the Panama - Canada game which is scheduled a few hours earlier so it is useless to talk now what does each team needs but from any angle these odds for Guadeloupe are crazy. May be the public expected too much from them in the first 2 rounds where they ended with 2 losses (2-3 from Panama and 0-1 from Canada)  but still they absolutely not Cuba or Granada to get smashed easily with a difference. Saying again almost all players of Guadeloupe are experienced and playing serious football in Europe (most in the French Ligue 2) and did quite well in their both previous appearances on the Gold Cup in 2007 and 2009. More details are available in my older pick. It is true Guadeloupe lost both their games so far but we can judge too harsh, in both had a man sent-off in the first half (against Canada just 4 minutes after the start) and in both penalties were given against them, the penalty for Panama was simply a joke. In addition, leaving Le Havre's topscorer Brice Jovial on the bench against Panama was obvious mistake revealed later as he appeared in the 2nd half and scored 2 goals. Along with Richard Socrier (AC Ajaccio) both can cause big problems to the shaky US defense. It is true that Guadeluope's chance to go on the next stage is just a fiction, may be 1% but on the other side pressure is not on them now and simply they have nothing to lose.  Lambourde is suspended after his red card against Canada but another actually much better defender Mickaël Tacalfred (over 200 games for Dijon and Reims) served his one and returns at the back.

 
USA put in the boots of huge favorites weren't much convincing so far and thorn apart by critics after the defeat from Panama. They obviously are not in their best condition, making mistakes and will look to bounce back in this game. The hosts will try everything to get better result as possible and end higher in their group (this way avoiding harder opponents in the next stage) but even now it is sure that US will qualify to the quarterfinals even with a draw no matter of the result in Canada - Panama as one of the two best placed 3rd teams in their groups. Probably US will win as everyone expects but giving this huge chance to do with 3 or more goals margin is far from justified.

Published Jun-14-2011, 16:20 CET

Category: . International
Betting option: Asian Handicap
Pick: Guadeloupe +2.5
Odds: 2.43
Stake: 4
Bookmaker: Pinnacle
Date: Jun-15-2011

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