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Tondela have been extremely unreliable this season with many changes in the squad and coach Petit unable to provide them with the consistency they need to escape the bottom of the table. They struggle at home by their inability of taking the initiative and the lack of spaces to use the pace of their wingers. They haven’t been able to beat Moreirense, Belenenses and Boavista at home and only defeated Paços with a lucky last minute goal (all team from the second half of the table. They have conceded at least one goal in every home game this season (except against Porto). In fact this along with Cup game against Sertanense was the only occasions in the 19 official encounters played so far they have managed to kept a clean sheet which speaks volumes about the quality of their defence (12 conceded in the last 5). The problems in the defence will be enhanced by the missing of CB Pica and the fact that both LB (Fabio Nunes and Mamadu) left the team in the winter market. Recently signed Ruca will have to feature there or LM Pité will have to be adapted to the position. DM Cláudio Gonçalves is the other missing due to injury.
Arouca have been improving lately with two consecutive away wins over Feirense and Moreirense. The team seems to have regained the consistency of last season and they are nowadays an extremely tough team to beat. All their defeats in the past weeks were either against opposition from the top-6 or in the League Cup where they opted for massive rotations. Their team seems designed to play on the road with an extremely strong midfield, fierce defenders and pacey forwards. RB Gege, LW Sancidino and DM Karl are injured but this is hardly a concern as they have been non-regulars throughout the entire Arouca’s campaign.
At the most this will be a very balanced encounter but I give a slight edge to the visitors. Hence, this DNB option above evens seems the wisest choice here.
Minimum odds: 2.00