In the case of Paraguay we saw how it is possible to reach the final of Copa America without winning a single game on the tournament (5 games, 5 draws) dut to huge luck especially on the 1/2 final where Paraguay were totally outplayed by Venezuela who had clear goal disallowed and hit 3 times the posts. That's more than enough for the Guarani who themselves admit luck was on their side to come at the final although grinding their teeth to lift the trophy on Sunday.
I'm picking Uruguay as they are clearly the better team as quality along that playing much better so far, especially with the run of Copa America, after knocking out Argentina passed in a very convincing manner Peru too. This is historic chance for Celeste to become the team with most Copa America titles won (currently 14, equal with Argentina) while Paraguay hope for their just 3rd title, last was in 1979.
Paraguay will have to do without Jonathan Santana (suspended), their coach Gerardo Martino is also banned. Uruguay welcome back Diego Perez after suspension.
I'm tempted to take Uruguay straight win but with this background you can never know if Paraguay can make 6th draw in row, so adding 1-2 units to the stake while taking the more careful -0.25 handicap.