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bfischer

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Union Comercio - Inti Gas    (void)

A bit disappointing that I missed the big value, in the morning I saw odds were even rising for Inti Gas and left the pick for a later moment, generally betting on the home team in Peru is quite often a fetish for the wide public then the price suddenly crashed as probably I'm not the only one on this sober opinion. 188bet still have a nice price, the offer of the rest bookies is not great but takeable.

What we have here? Odds were entirely set because of the home-away stats of both teams, similar pattern - strong results at home and quite poor away. I don't deny that Union Comercio are favorites but -1 handicap (and odds 1.50 - 1.60 for a homewin) is way too much, both sides are on par as quality and actually Inti Gas are even 6 points above Union Comercio in the standing and contender for Copa Sudamericana spot (currently 6th). Union Comercio are changing wins at home with losses away since quite a time. For sure not some world beaters though and below average team in Decentralizado, have their good home balance behind their backs but the value is absolutely not with them against a serious opponent like Inti Gas.

Also, Inti Gas are in decent form, just one loss in last 6 rounds and it can be excused being away at the absolute favorite in Peru Alianza Lima (2-4, finsihed that game with 9 men). Apart from that Inti Gas are keeping OK recently on travels, lost just one from last 4 (the mentioned 2-4 from Alianza) and pulled decent results in the rest - 2-1 at Leon de Huanuco, 2-2 at Melgar and 0-0 at Sporting Cristal. Even if missing a couple of important figures in the midfield - Angelo Cruzado and Jose Corcuera (both suspended) visitors can take a point here or at least keep close in the score.

Published: 16-10-2011, 14:24 CET Pick: Inti Gas +1
Odds: 1.75 at 188bet
Stake: 4


Category: Football / Peru
Date: 16-10-2011
Option: Asian Handicap

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