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bfischer

Total picks (W-D-L):690-97-538 Average stake:3.49
Risked: 4628 units Average winning odds: 1.89
Net profit: 344.79 units Average losing odds: 1.95
ROI: 107% Monthly stats



Santa Fe - Once Caldas   (lost)

 

Once Caldas turned in gigantic public bet in the last 3-4 days, reasons are known as Santa Fe played with Velez (again at home) and 48 hours later expected to rest players who were busy in Copa Sudamericana. However odds for away win dropping from 3.20 to 1.75 (as it was in one moment) is beyond any healthy sense and we have great value on the hosts. After clearing who will play tonight it is true 9 starters from the game with Velez are rested but we must underline that Santa Fe are absolutely not going with kids or some hopeless formation to justify such odds. This is the announced group and expected starting eleven:
 
Starting: Julio; Amaya, Centurión, Quiñones, Villarraga; Roa, Bedoya, Carreño, Gómez, Galvan;  Vélez.
Reserves: Leyton, Moreno, Pérez, Valencia, Preciado.
 
Goalie Julio was regular in most games this season. Defender Centurión (22 starts) plus midfielders Roa (20 starts) and Bedoya (23 starts, 5 goals) are firm regulars, Roa stayed on the bench vs Velez for tactical decision, Bedoya was sent-off and Centurión probably found not that tired so all are available. Villarraga was regular last season but got a heavy injury in March, recovered month and something ago and started 3 games since then, just not pushed yet into much busy schedule. Argentinian Carreno played 21 games (14 as starter in 2011). Gomez with 20 games (12 as starter) and 4 goals. Galvan with 22 games (15 as starter) and 3 goals. Velez arrived in the break from Venezuela where he was topsorer of Zamora and often appearing in play, scored 2 goals for Santa Fe. Only Amaya and Quinonez have relatively less games (4-5) for the team.
 
Santa Fe are doing great in Bogota (9-3-3 in 2011), now looking to keep their place in the playoff zone. On the other hand Once Caldas are disappointing so far with their 15th place, got a couple of wins lately (both hard 3-2 with late goals) but the coaching staff must seriously think about their defense which conceded goals in all last 14  games (including the cup).
 
To thank for the massive support against Velez the bosses of Santa Fe  announced tickets at half-price for tonight so the hosts will have again a big crowd behind their backs.
 
On top of all Once Caldas are probably the most loved opponent for Santa Fe as los cardenales are 15-8-4 since 2000 against their visitors, what is interesting they usually win even in Manizales which is otherwise known as very hard place. I don't see why Santa Fe to be such big underdogs on their own ground (even with these changes in the lineup) and going with a bit larger stake because value is more than good. 

Published Nov-03-2011, 12:26 CET

Category: Colombia
Betting option: Asian Handicap
Pick: Santa Fe +0.5
Odds: 1.78
Stake: 8
Bookmaker: SBOBET
Date: Nov-04-2011

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