ESPOLI are virtually relegated, in October they suddenly bursted with 3 wins in row that revived their hopes but followed by 3 defeats in last 3 rounds it makes it almost impossible to overcome the current 11 points gap with 5 games left. The latest loss from Olmedo should be explicitly hurting as ESPOLI took the lead in the 79th minute but wasted it in full conceding goals in the 85th and 90th minute. The "policemen" have weak defense that can be easily exploited by the most scoring team in Serie A.
On the other hand Deportivo Quito are step away from winning the 2nd stage and qualifying for the title playoff against Emelec but need to win few more games as 6 pts advantage over LDU is not so big 5 rounds before the end.
ESPOLI are with full squad, the only probable missing for Deportivo Quito is Luis Saritama who is in the group but not likely to feature due to injury. It is true Saritama is a key player in the midfield but that shouldn't be so fatal.
Deportivo Quito have smashing advantage in the h2h stats having won all last 9 games against ESPOLI and not expected to have big problems to take 3 points again.
Many Euro bookies have 1.75 for Deportivo at 1X2 which is preferable of course because the small difference in odds with this AH line.