2 rounds to go in Ecuador, the 2nd relegating team after ESPOLI will be decided between Independiente, Manta and Imbabura. Independiente seem in best position with 3 points over Manta and 5 points over Imbabura but we shouldn't miss that Manta and Imbabura will play both at home against expectedly the "B" teams of Emelec and Deportivo Quito in the weekend and both should take 3 points if needed after today's round. So this is a game Independiente cannot afford to lose, at the same time anything else than 3 points will practically send Imbabura in Serie B and this must grant us a very open game from the first minute. Saying that Independiente need 1 point doesn't mean they will play for draw because their defense is very poor and put under pressure will concede for sure.
Without making any calculations about points, the numbers also say more than 3 goals are highly expected:
We have matching the 2 worst defenses in Serie A, both allowed 70 goals in 2011. At least for Independiente this doesn't seem so fatal because on the other hand their attack is one of the best productive in Ecuador, Narciso Mina with his hattrick last weekend over ESPOLI undisputed topscorer of the league with 28 goals. Last 6 games of Independiente brought 5 over 2.5 games. Imbabura fighting for their lives also are involved by rule in highscoring affairs, all of their last 9 games ended over 2.5 and the difference is recently they started to score a lot too, 13 goals in last 5 games.
After 2-2 and 3-3 draws in the first part of the season followed by 0-1 in Ibarra it is time to see again 3 goals at least.
Independiente repeat the same lineup from the 4-1 win over ESPOLI, one change in Imbabura as the goalie Ibarra is suspended for 5 yellow cards.