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bfischer

Total picks (W-D-L):690-97-538 Average stake:3.49
Risked: 4628 units Average winning odds: 1.89
Net profit: 344.79 units Average losing odds: 1.95
ROI: 107% Monthly stats



Once Caldas - Junior   (won)

2nd leg of the final in Liga Postobon II. Once Caldas must be very sorry for losing 2-3 the first game as they were leading 2-0 in the 40th minute but then 2 penalties (first was for unintended hand-ball) for Junior plus Mejia's sending-off was the worst scenario that could happen. The task remains clear though, simply winning this game and winning  the title. 

Junior reached the final a bit lucky, first they would have been knocked out by Chico on the 1/4 finals but the federation decided to give them 1 pt for the suspended (at 0-0) game in Tunja and 0 pts for Chico so 2-2 at home was enough in a situation when normally this result would work for Chico. On the 1/2 final eliminating Millonarios after penalties.
 
It is true that Once Caldas don't have a good track against Junior in 2011 but now the case is different and looking at the bigger picture things are in their favor, known as very tough team in Manizales and Junior coming from the Pacific coast usually have serious problems with games on high altitude, the last example was just 10 days ago when they were thumped 0-3 in Bogota by Millonarios but managed to pick the same result at home in the return and had better chance with the penalties. Here are the stats of Junior playing on over 2,000 meters since 2000:
 
@ Boyaca Chico (Tunja) 0-3-5
@ Millonarios (Bogota) 2-3-12
@ Santa Fe (Bogota) 1-4-8
@ La Equidad (Bogota) 0-0-6
@ Once Caldas (Manizales) 1-5-12
 
The odds may be not amazing but there is a reason for that as we see and still representing interest with some smaller stake.
 
Team news - Junior without missing players, goalie Sebastián Viera returns after suspennsion.  Alexander Mejia is banned for Once Caldas, shouldn't be a big problem.

Published Dec-21-2011, 10:41 CET

Category: Colombia
Betting option: 1X2 / Moneyline
Pick: Once Caldas
Odds: 1.83
Stake: 3
Bookmaker: SBOBET
Date: Dec-22-2011

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