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bfischer

Total picks (W-D-L):690-97-538 Average stake:3.49
Risked: 4628 units Average winning odds: 1.89
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ROI: 107% Monthly stats



Racing - Estudiantes   (half-lost)

 

The preseason summer warm-up tournament starting in Mar del Plata. Estudiantes with a new coach after a miserable 2nd part of 2011, "Vasco" Azconzábal, who will be using this game to test reserves and youngsters players, 10 from the usual starters in Apertura are not in the group at all. Because of this (and the info is already widely spread) Racing becoming a huge public bet but I prefer to stay out of the affair betting on them because it is still first preseason game where anything can be expected. Instead of this trying another pick, over 2.25 goals. Looking at the early u/o 2.5 odds I was hoping for 2 goals Asian line, didn't came but on the other hand we have higher price for over 2.25 that can be backed with smaller stake. 
 
These odds are entirely because of Racing stats in Apertura, just 2 from their 19 games ended with more than 2 goals, very tight defending which allowed just 8 goals and nothing creative, upfront whatever happens - not much. But the architect of these ugly tactics Diego Simeone is no longer in the team after taking Atletico Madrid (just made his debut in typical style with ... 0-0 at Malaga), replaced by the veteran Alfio Basile with his 4th time in charge of his native club. The last time Basile managed a team was in 2009, with Boca who were playing open and scoring for and against football at that time, mostly producing "over" games. What is sure the new boss has quite different ideas about the play compared with Simeone and will bring more offensive attitude so these u/o stats from Apertura are not so relevant.
 
In the previos Torneo de verano (2011) Estudiantes won 4-0, probably in the opposite direction now but goals again should be coming in a game that is not about points or something and we must see an open football. Racing with their best players tonight against a fringe version of Estudiantes, if they win as everyone expects should be able to do it scoring a couple of goals at least and in any case if their opponent hits that can be only good for our bet too. 

Published Jan-10-2012, 12:54 CET

Category: Argentine
Betting option: Under / Over
Pick: Over 2.25
Odds: 2.13
Stake: 3
Bookmaker: SBOBET
Date: Jan-11-2012

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