Total picks (W-D-L):690-97-538 Average stake:3.49
Risked: 4628 units Average winning odds: 1.89
Net profit: 344.79 units Average losing odds: 1.95
ROI: 107% Monthly stats

Libertad - El Nacional   (won)


Return leg of the preliminary round. El Nacional won 1-0 in Quito but the result is hardly any reference because  the abnormal conditions in which the game was played, deep fog plus the big altitude which is serious handicap for teams like Libertad, even Barca could have lost that game. Now is different. Libertad have no other option than to seek win with 2 goals margin and most probably they will get it. The Paraguayans are no doubt better quality team and with much more experience on international level, since 2003 every year playing in the group stage of Copa Libertadores (11 seasons without interruption) and know how to handle with games like this. Practically the same team as last season, no squad problems.
El Nacional earned a ticket for Copa Libertadores not that because they were something impressive last season (won less than half of their games) but because the general level of the league was low, most of the competitors making too many mistakes and dropping points. After 2007 El Nacional appeared just once in international competition, in 2009 in the preliminary round of Copa Libertadores where they were demolished again by Paraguayans  - Nacional Asuncion by 3-8 aggregate score. The Paraguayans did their job in the first game in Quito by winning 5-0 and the return was highly smelling 3-3 which shouldn't be taken serious at all. Apart from that El Nacional lost practically every away game in their rare international appearances. 
Going with higher stake as it would be quite a surprise if Libertad don't win and they need win with a margin, even if we see a close result half of the stake will be back so it is acceptable risk.

Published Jan-31-2012, 11:12 CET

Category: . International
Betting option: Asian Handicap
Pick: Libertad -1.25
Odds: 1.89
Stake: 7
Bookmaker: SBOBET
Date: Jan-31-2012

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