Flu badly disapponted in the midweek vs Boavista, opened the score and had enough chances to confirm their lead but blowing everything in the last 10 minutes. Abel Braga was very upset and said now this game against Duque became "decisive", although looking to recover the lost points with a different lineup, as known the first eleven start to prepare for Copa Libertadores. Because the known news odds rise for Flu but this version of the team is still strong enough to cope with teams like Duque, it may be even better as these players are fully focused on Carioca. The eleven will be same which played in the first round with Friburguense and won comfortably with 3-0, with just one but huge difference - Thiago Neves making his new debut for Flu after great least season in Flamengo and surely boosting the creativity in midfield. If we look the players stepping in tonight almost all are well known and experienced, many of them not "regulars" just because Braga can't field more than 11 players on the pitch:
Ricardo Berna, Souza, Digão, Márcio Rosário, Thiago Carleto; Valencia, Jean, Thiago Neves; Wellington Nem, Araújo, Rafael Moura.
Duque de Caxias who last season were clear tragedy in Serie B (finished on ... 31 points away from the safe 16th position and leaking big bags with goals) started Carioca in similar poor manner, losses from Boavista and Vasco (both with 1-3) and 0-0 draw against Friburguense in the last round. Not much to hope for in Carioca and will struggle to keep their place for another season.
The default -1.25 handicap is a bit risky but as the odds rised for -1 (the bet can be taken in bet365 too) or you can wait for live betting backing again Flu as another fail will be too much.