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Argentinos Juniors - Fluminense    (lost)

 

Asian odds were just released and right away started to drop which was expected, no time to waste.
 
Copa Libertadores, last round in Group 3 where all 4 teams have real or theoretical chance to advance. Fluminense are in worst position being on last place with 5 points after losing both away games and 2 draws at home (0-0 against Nacional and 2-2 exactly against Argentinos Juniors). In fact their chances are close to nothing, only 2 possible scenatios to go through:
 
1. Winning this game and Nacional losing at home from America.
2. In case Nacional makes a draw with America, Flu will have to win this game by at least 2 goals margin.
 
For Argentinos Juniors things are much more simple, winning this one and qualifying on 100% without depending on the  possibility Nacional to fail against America.
 
Both teams played in the weekend with almost best lineups in their domestic leagues,  Argentinos Jrs gave a rest to their best scorer Franco Niell who scored both goals for 2-2 in the away game. and generally had day more to recover than Fluminense. Yesterday Flu had to ensure their progress in Taca Rio, minimal 1-0 against the mass poor Nova Iguacu, Fred scored from penalty.
 
Generally Flu are not performing great after winning the title in Brasileiro in 2010, a kind of normal trend  - got eliminated on the semifinals for Taca Guanabara by humble team as Boavista, already mentioned about the miserable record in Copa Libertadores, the only win was very hard fought 3-2 at home vs America with late goal by Deco. Now Deco is out.   
The lack of head coach is another thing working against Flu. In March the title architect Muricy Ramalho left to Santos and currently the team is led by interim Enderson Moreira who was previously coach of the "B" team of Internacional, fired from there because poor results. You can imagine what it is about. Of course Flu will not rely on him, they signed with Abel Braga but he will come in May after completing his contract with Al Jazira.
 
In addition, on the coming weekend Fluminense are facing the big clasico Fla-Flu, semifinal for Taca Rio which for now looks the much more important game and Brazilians can save some physical resource for it. Reading interviews with Enderson Moreira and Fred, both are careful saying how difficult will be to win in Buenos Aires especially when things (to qualify) are not depending on them, mentioning that will be "physical" game along with sight on the next game with Flamengo just few days later. So we can't expect the best efforts from Flu especially if the other game (Nacional - America) is not going well or eventually if Flu try to make some miracle they will have to seek a win with margin and take risks that can be easily explored and punished by the hosts.
Published: 18-04-2011, 13:12 CET Pick: Argentinos Juniors 0
Odds: 1.72 at SBOBET
Stake: 6


Category: Football / International
Date: 21-04-2011
Option: Asian Handicap

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