With 4 games without a win (3 draws and loss in the latest one at Juan Aurich) Alianza wasted their strong start of the season and lost the first place (now trailing by 1 point), time to bounce back and this is a perfect game to do it. CNI are just mediocre team, bottom half material. At first glance they look tough to get beaten but we must consider that in both their wins so far (in 9 rounds) their opponents Universidad San Martin and Leon de Huanuco played with reserves being busy with Copa Libertadores so it doesn't mean anything. CNI made some draws too but the departure of their best player and scorer from last season Sergio Almiron (21 goals) badly decreased their fire power, got a couple of new forwards (Orlando and Celis) who are far from good. Excluding the couple of mentioned games CNI scored just 4 goals in 7 more serious competitive games.
Alianza are as usually one of the big title contenders, with full squad (only the suspended defender Leandro Fleitas is missing), after 2009 being 19-7-1 at home in regular season games and now urged to improve their result to return on top. For me these are enough reasons to back the home team.