Stanley Cup Playoffs Round 2: Analyzing the Elite Eight

12-05-2025


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As of Wednesday morning, the NHL playoffs had advanced to the second round, with eight teams still in contention for the Stanley Cup and three series already underway. Following Tuesday’s games, the updated odds reflected major shifts. These were driven by recent performances, key injuries, and standout individual efforts. Such factors continue to reshape the competitive landscape and each team’s championship outlook.

The Challenge Ahead: Washington Capitals and Vegas Golden Knights

Ranked eighth and seventh, respectively, the Washington Capitals and Vegas Golden Knights faced immediate uphill battles.

Washington`s odds were low even before their Game 1 overtime loss to Carolina. A game where they were significantly outshot 33-14, further underscoring the unforgiving nature of the NHL playoffs, where every shot and save counts.

Despite having home-ice advantage and finishing higher in the regular season standings, skepticism surrounds the Capitals. This is due to a regular season performance potentially inflated by the league`s highest shooting percentage and strong goaltending. Their depth on defense has also been impacted by injury.

Vegas, the defending champions, have also shown vulnerability. They lost Game 1 at home to the Oilers after taking an early 2-0 lead, ultimately giving up four unanswered goals in a 4-2 defeat.

A significant concern for Vegas is the performance of their regular starting goaltender, who had the second-weakest numbers among remaining No. 1 goalies after Tuesday`s games. Key injuries and the slowing of a veteran defenseman have further impacted their lineup. Vegas needed to generate more offense after putting only 17 shots on the opposing goalie in Game 1.

Mid-Round Hopefuls: Florida Panthers and Winnipeg Jets

It might seem surprising to find the defending champion Florida Panthers ranked sixth, but their position reflects the difficulty of going down 1-0 in the second round without home-ice advantage. Some models gave them only a 37 percent chance of winning their series right after their Game 1 loss.

The health and performance of key offensive players are also noted as potential factors. Despite the slow start, the Panthers are recognized as a deep and experienced team with the capability to quickly shift probabilities back in their favor. Especially given their history and how they handled their first-round opponent.

The Winnipeg Jets, despite finishing the regular season as the Presidents` Trophy winners, ranked fifth. Their first-round performance, which included a dramatic Game 7 win, didn`t entirely silence doubters. A primary reason cited for this skepticism is the play of their starting goaltender, who reportedly allowed 10 goals below expected against St. Louis. Additionally, injuries to key players, including their top center and top defenseman, are major concerns. The Jets face a formidable opponent in the Dallas Stars, who are expected to get healthier. Winnipeg`s ability to rise in the rankings depends heavily on getting healthy and improved goaltending.

Statistical Discrepancy

Interestingly, the sources highlight that the Jets are the team with the largest discrepancy between statistical models and betting odds, suggesting a division in how different analytical approaches view their chances.

Injury Concerns

Winnipeg`s playoff prospects are significantly tied to the health status of key injured players like their No. 1 center and top defenseman. Their potential return is seen as crucial for the team to advance and improve its standing in the overall Cup probabilities.

Ascending Threats: Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers

Ranked fourth and third, the Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilersv are viewed as significant contenders. Dallas`s high ranking, even before playing a Round 2 game, indicates the strength of their roster and the difficulty of their first-round opponent.

With the projected return of important players from injury, there is considerable confidence in the market regarding Dallas. Many league executives and analysts favored the Stars heading into Round 2, reflecting their talent and depth. Their potential as the best team remaining talent-wise when fully healthy is noted.

The Edmonton Oilers moved up in the rankings after a strong Game 1 win against Vegas, overcoming prior skepticism related to a slow start in the first round. They achieved this win despite concerns about their goaltending, which featured a journeyman with limited NHL starts and a low save percentage over recent years, and injuries to key defensemen.

Edmonton`s comeback win in Game 1 was their fifth consecutive comeback victory, an NHL playoff first. The Oilers` path forward, particularly facing potentially healthy and strong opponents in later rounds, affects their overall Cup probabilities.

The McDavid-Draisaitl Factor

A major strength for Edmonton is the presence of their superstar centers, who are considered a great equalizer. Despite goaltending and defensive depth concerns, their ability to generate offense and drive play remains a core component of the Oilers` success.

Comeback Kings

The Oilers have developed a reputation for resilience, noted for winning games in multiple ways, including overcoming deficits. This tenacity was highlighted by their six straight comeback victories following initial losses in the first round.

Favorites Emerge: Toronto Maple Leafs and Carolina Hurricanes

The Toronto Maple Leafs surprisingly held the second-best Cup odds as of May 7th. An impressive Game 1 victory over the defending champion Panthers significantly boosted their probabilities.

While there were concerns about their goaltending depth following an injury to one netminder, confidence remains in his backup, who has played well in past postseasons. Toronto has also benefited from facing a Florida team dealing with injuries and potentially fatigue after deep playoff runs in previous years.

The Carolina Hurricanes were positioned as the favorite, leading the rankings. This favored status is supported by both statistical models and oddsmakers. One reason for their top ranking is competing in the NHL`s weakest division and encountering the generally regarded easiest opponent in the second round.

Their control over territory in Game 1 strengthened this perceived disparity. While questions remain about Carolina`s goaltender`s health and their ability to score consistently, their strong defensive performance throughout the season and their high probability of advancing from Round 2 boost their overall Cup chances.

A Wide-Open Race in Round 2

With eight teams remaining, the second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs presents a highly competitive field. Teams like the Carolina Hurricanes and Toronto Maple Leafs currently hold the top probability rankings after the initial games. However, the analysis shows that factors such as injuries, goaltending performance, and key player contributions are causing these probabilities to shift rapidly.

Teams like the Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers are seen as significant threats with the potential to climb, while the Florida Panthers and Winnipeg Jets look to overcome early series deficits and health challenges.

The Washington Capitals and Vegas Golden Knights face the steepest climbs based on current odds and early series results. The tight bunching of talent means the race for the Stanley Cup remains wide open, with every game having the potential to significantly alter the landscape.