Comparing Tipsters Against Value Betting
Sports betting is pulling in more fans, most who are only casual sports fans. But they also want to keep winning. That’s why there are more tipsters coming up every day. Tipster services have made sports betting friendly to new bettors. All you need to do is subscribe to a tipster service to get tips on your favorite sport. On the other hand are AI algorithms that scour the bookies for value bets.
All successful punters know how to hunt for value bets. This expertise is developed from a deep knowledge of a sport, teams and game dynamics. A value bet implies an outcome is priced higher than its real odds. Odds pricing is not a precise art, but based on different factors that show the probability of that outcome.
For example, Manchester Utd is playing a Championship team e.g., Stoke city. The bookies price Man Utd. To win at 1.75. If you think that the Man Utd’s chances of winning are greater than 95%, a bet of 1.75 would be a value bet.
While human tipsters can pick up a few value bets, algorithmic tipsters can scour thousands of betting markets to identify hundreds of value bets. It gives algo tipsters the advantage to offer a higher variety of games to bet on almost daily.
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How do Human and Algorithmic Value Betting Tipsters Compare?
Human tipsters have the advantage of intuition, while algo tipsters have the advantage of covering a wide scope of betting markets. These two services offer different advantages:
Human tipsters can analyze up to three markets very well. They have deep knowledge of these markets and can tell when a team is overpriced or underpriced. A good human tipster can give about 3-5 quality tips per weekend.
Algorithmic value betting services use AI algorithms
to cover worldwide markets in a few minutes. They analyze tons of statistical data on past performance and do all the statistical computations to determine if a betting option is overpriced or not. They can do these computations across all sports. These AI services can give hundreds of value bets on any day.
Scope of Analysis
Human tipsters analyze the whole breadth of factors that influence a game’s outcome. These factors include injuries, players and management relationships, motivation, fatigue, and home advantage. This wider analysis gives a more whole picture than pure data analysis.
Algorithmic tipsters can crunch a lot of data, but they cannot analyze qualitative factors like player motivation and fatigue. Algorithmic value bets must be complemented with human data analysis to give more accurate reading.
Past performance is a good indicator of current performance. Algorithms can test their hypotheses with several months or years of data in a short time. Human tipsters do not have this ability and will probably scan the last 10 games.
Human tipsters suffer from the ‘Catenaccio’ effect. When one is winning, they might become loss averse to retain what they have won. In betting, it leads to taking lower bets and ignoring value bets.
Algorithms do not suffer such emotions. They will continue working as programmed whether they give a string of five consecutive losses or 10 wins. There are no emotions involved in crunching the data.
There is no one method that has an overwhelming advantage over the other. The best solution is the one where the qualitative advantages of human intuition can enrich the value bets of AI algorithms.