How Often Do the Top Two Seeds Meet in the Final of Wimbledon?
14-07-2023
If the world rankings and the seedings are accurate, in theory every tennis tournament should have its final contested by the number one and two seeds.
But it doesn’t always work out that way, of course, which means that somewhere down the line an underdog has defeated a more fancied player – as bettors, that information is particularly interesting as we plot our Grand Slam bets.
Wimbledon in particular has been a tough environment for the top seeds, so how often do the top two in the sport go on to meet in the final?
Upsetting the Odds
As far as the 2023 edition of the grass-court major is concerned, the top two seeds are on course to meet in the final – the men`s Wimbledon betting odds make Novak Djokovic a comfy 1/2 favourite, with the likes of Daniil Medvedev (11/1) given little chance to spoil the party.
That is an anomaly, of sorts, because the history books generally do not support the notion of the top two seeds meeting in the final. Prior to 2023, that had only happened twice in the 2010s – both times it was Novak Djokovic getting the upper hand on Roger Federer in titanic clashes on centre court in 2015 and 2019.
Federer’s defeat to Rafa Nadal in 2008 was also a case of the 1-2 meeting, as it was in 2006 and a year later when the Swiss ace gained bragging rights over the Spanish powerhouse.
In the years before the emergence of the ‘big four’ of Djokovic, Federer, Nadal and Andy Murray, 1-2 finals were even rarer. Indeed, you have to go back to 1982 and the epic shootout between John McEnroe and Jimmy Connors for the last time that the top two seeds met in the Wimbledon final.
So what have we learned from a betting perspective? Well, we can certainly take on the top seeds at Wimbledon – the history books are very much on our side.
Underdog Story
In an era dominated by Venus and Serena Williams, it’s not been that unusual for either the number one or two seed to make it to the final of the women’s singles at Wimbledon.
But that hasn’t been so much the case in the past decade, so here’s an amazing stat: since 2012, there hasn’t been a single women’s final at SW19 that has featured both the top and second seeds.
You have to scroll back through the archives to 2002, when the Williams sisters met in the first of their four finals, to find the last time that the most predictable outcome occurred.
On this day in 2002: Serena Williams won her first Wimbledon title... beating her sister, Venus, in the final pic.twitter.com/qD80T8ddtb
Prior to that, it’s back to 1995 we go – the top seed Steffi Graf downing number two Arantxa Sanchez Vicario in three sets.
So, all told, the number one and two seeds have met in the women’s singles final at Wimbledon just twice in the past 30 years – a truly remarkable statistic.
It’s certainly food for thought when placing your outright winner bets at Wimbledon.
