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Football under / over betting, how it does?

18-04-2018



We all know that under / over bets in football are very popular, nearly as much as betting on either side on the 1X2 or handicap markets. Is it profitable though? Where does it stand compared with the rest basic options? Nothing talks better than the numbers and Betrush has a large enough database of picks to get the picture and write off the impact of chance and short-term randomness. For almost 10 years we`ve recorded close to 90,000 football picks released by hundreds tipsters that have been active on our site. Going straight to the stats, profit calculated at flat stake 1 unit per pick (note that few more markets on our main site were added just recently):

MARKET PICKS PROFIT YIELD

Betrush free site
1X225095891.6+3.6%
Asian Handicap23184259.5+1.1%
Under / Over19940-67-0.3%
Draw No Bet3067162.8+5.3%
Euro Handicap2899148.2+5.1%
Double Chance1796105.2+5.9%
Both To Score22413.3+6%
HT/FT282.7+9.7%
Total762331516.3+2%

Betrush Premium
1X2107287.1+8.1%
Asian Handicap8509381.2+4.5%
Under / Over2143-48.8-2.3%
Total11724419.6+3.6%


So, it is obvious that in total under / over bets are not paying and worse, losing unlike the rest markets. Browsing the individual tipster stats it can be also noticed that the bigger part of otherwise successful tipsters have lower and many of them even negative balance with U/O picks. Why is that?

First, the U/O market involves stats more than any other betting option. Stats serve the players to make a decision but you can imagine they serve bookies too (and they have very sophisticated algorithms to do their estimations) so in most cases the odds are quite right. You can see it by the fact that usually u/o odds fluctuate in much smaller range compared with the 1X2 or AH odds and it is harder to nail any real value. It is all about reading the odds, most people love basing U/O bets on numbers and don`t care much about the odds, you may have plenty of reasons to expect a highscoring game and probably it will be a highscoring game but if you get 1.50 for over 2.5 goals it can be arguable if this is a good bet in terms of value.

The next and probably more important thing is that u/o bets are NOT bets on the actual purpose of the game. Football as any other team sport is about winning the game, scoring one goal more than the opponent. Excluding some specific cases (as 2nd legs of knockout rounds for example) it doesn`t matter if you win by 1-0 or 4-2. Anything can happen depending on the run of the game turning such bets into a bit of a coinflip. It is the points that matters, this is why 1X2 picks deliver best results as it can be seen above.

Of course it doesn`t mean that it is not possible to make profit with U/O bets, some people do it and good picks can always pop up. But it is quite hard as it turns out, especially with "sharp" bookies (which we use in BP) so be very careful and don`t push too much on this market as results in the long run most likely won`t be great.

Finally, we must underline that all above refers to football betting only... Totals are an OK market in some other sports but it is a subject of another story. With football we wish you (and it is needed more than ever) good luck!



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Football under / over betting, how it does?, 18-04-2018
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