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Crvena zvezda - CSKA Moscow    (won)

Euroleague » R25

What a nice chance to make a profit again by betting against Cz. This team is a mess as I said many times in this season but now especially this is the case. They hit the ground and hit very hard. What more they are in deep hole and no way to find the exit. 
Their struggles continues games after game. This team has lost even 5 of the last 6 in EL with only win in that home meeting vs PAO after the Greek team was huge points advantage up at halftime but then suspiciously collapsed in the second half. Nothing fishy should be in this game now cause CSKA Moscow is without such luxury to be fooling around. The Russian Giant after two straight losses has dropped to 16-8 in Euroleague. They are still on positions (4th) that guarantees home court advantage in the playoffs but now are tied with Maccabi Tel Aviv who is 5th. Note we are in final third of the regular season so all big teams need to be max serious now. 
CSKA will be well ready and fresh for this game. They played on February the 13th in VTB against Kalev and won 81:67 in one routine game without losing too much energy and now have enough time to prepare well for upcoming EL games cause in VTB they won't play till March. 
Only Will Clyburn and Andrey Vorontsevich missed the game vs Kalev due to injuries. 
CSKA obviously with very deep roster and what ever 12 players arrives to Serbia, they are big favourites against Crvena zvezda who can't cope with this level.

We remember very well what happened when these two met in Russia. CSKA has won back then at home in Moscow with 100:73. Cz was back then without Lorenzo Brown but he is now in any case in poor form so no worries. After few nice games, Brown was terrible lately. Note Cz doesn't have the real backup play-maker for him and that's big problem for this team. You can imagine how all that looks when Brown himself is not playing well.

Cz is coming to this game after tough Serbian Cup tournament where they have played three games in four days.They have now 4 days off but no help for this team cause as I said, they are in big hole as physically as well mentally. 
Too many veteran players in this team who simply are not anymore Euroleague level. Injuries happens too often. Poor coaching. They have now the third different coach in this season and this guy (Šakota) was not responsible for players selection. He has brought three new guys since arriving but Štimac and Kuridža are funny to say at least while Punter is not bad but very often he is like James Harden meaning he spends too many balls, so more damage from him than he brings something good. I would say he is good player but in the wrong team. 
The latest bad news is that Dobrić got injured too. He broke his finger and won't be available for a while. Two guys are sent to FMP (their B team), those are Kuzmić and Čović. Čović doesn't deserve to play even in FMP but sending Kuzmić there was unbelievable mistake cause they don't have better center. I mean they kept funny Ojo and veteran Gist. No surprise if Gist picks up some new injury very soon. 
When mentioning Serbian Cup, note Crvena zvezda suffered big slap in the face cause they couldn't win the trophy even there, not even against heavily weakened Partizan who played somewhere at 30 to 40%. Partizan has played 3 games in 3 days plus yesterday's finals arrived for them with just 21.5 hour after finishing semifinals while Cz played 3 games in 4 days plus had 26 hours after semifinals. Referees were terrible, were pushing Cz entire game but nothing paid of cause even +6 pts and 17 seconds left on the clock wasn't enough for them. Partizan made a comeback and won in Over Time. This was very painful loss for them, believe me, they will need a lot of time to recover from this. How bad Cz is, you can see also by the fact that they didn't deserve to be in the finals at all. Namely in SF clash vs Mega, Cz has won by one point after last second 3-pts shot. Note Mega is the team whose roster is composed of players 19 years of age in average. 

I simply don't see Crvena zvezda can erase now all bad things and to bounce back against such strong opponent like CSKA Moscow is. 
CSKA wins this in double digits. 
This is completely wrong initial offer. CSKA must be much bigger favorite. Like small example, CSKA in previous round was like -7.5 or -8 pts favourite on the road in Greece against big club Olympiacos. And why? Just because Oly had certain injury problems and Greek veteran play-maker was out. But you can't underestimate Olympiacos at home. You just can't in any circumstances. On the other side now against Cz who is in very bad momentum and who honestly means nothing in European basketball, we have only -4??? Well, I would take that every time and definitely would be up on the long term. 
P.S. 7-1 H2H and with CSKA winning in double digits the last four mutual meetings. 
bet365 offering right now -4 @1.90.
Published: 17-02-2020, 18:31 CET Pick: CSKA -4
Odds: 1.91 at William Hill

Category: European basketball
Date: 21-02-2020
Option: Asian Handicap
Stake: 10 (tipster's average: 10)

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